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3 steps to improve decision making by identifying underlying beliefs

Aktualisiert: 19. Mai 2020

As humans, we only have limited capacity to grasp and process all of reality. In order to deal with that reality, all of us have a mental representation of how we think the world as well as business works. This representation is highly subjective and rarely has anything to do with what is actually real. I hate to break it to you, but that is also true for you. As a result one of the core abilities is to make these beliefs visible, which enables you to challenge these them. This is a crucial area to improve upon when facilitating better decisions. Hence, when aiming to improve an organization's or client’s decision making, I suggest to analyse existing belief systems from the following three different viewpoints:


  1. Beliefs about cause and effect

  2. Beliefs about available options

  3. Beliefs about desirable results


In a first step try to learn about your counterpart’s cause and effect logic.

How does she think things are connected? How does the model of cause and effect in the head of your counterparts look? If you think that this is nothing subjective - well that’s just because you think that your cause and effect logic is universally valid. The truth is that causality is invisible.

I’ll give you an example: “Hard work leads to monetary success”. This is nothing but a belief about a causal connection which can not be proven to be universally valid. Try to identify these doctrines in your project context in order to challenge them and thereby opening up new viewpoints on the potential results of certain actions.


In a next step, try to learn about the predominant beliefs on which options there are. I would like to introduce you to a model that can help you identify certain thought and belief patterns: The Tetralemma. This logic has its origins in India and will help you systematically challenge beliefs in the context of decision making. The word Tetralemma is derived of the dilemma. A Dilemma is a situation in which you typically have to choose between two (“di”) options which are at worst both not very desirable. This already is a belief system. In a business context organizations, teams and individuals quite often seem to be stuck in a dilemma situation where things seem like there are only two options upon which they can decide. An example would be a company struggling with the decision about producing new software in an agile way or in a classical (waterfall) way, but let's get back to that later.

You can enable your clients as well as your own team to make better decisions by challenging the underlying belief system in a nice and structured way. Who says that there are only the two options you are looking at? This is where the Tetralemma comes in. It helps you break up a pattern of thinking, which would have lead to a diminution of options. Instead of assuming that you can either do option A or option B you can ask if it is possible to do both or to not do either one. This way of looking at the present challenge will then open up the question if there is a completely different solution option which has nothing to do with option A or B. When finding yourself presented with a dilemma situation, pull out the Tetralemma and you will set an impulse to challenge the current belief pattern. To make it a little more graphic:



If we pick up the software production dilemma from above we can now offer more decision options. The company could do both, which would be a hybrid method of software production combining classical and agile approaches, like for example the “water-scrum-fall”. A fourth option would be to not do either option. If the software development in your company is not really your core competence why do it yourself at all? How about buying standard software or outsource the software development? Or should we even consider the option of completely leaving the software market?

If you identified the beliefs about the options available, you can now challenge them and thereby offer new options for action.



A third dimension from which to analyse beliefs is the way people think about desirable results. Decisions are measured by success - but success may not be defined in the same way by different organization and individuals. Therefore you should ask “What is success?” Before deciding on something, it is of immeasurable value to really think long and hard about what a success is and what decision options may lead there in your specific context. If you dig deeper, a lot of times the definition of a success seems to be very vague. This is why most companies pay top people to break “success” down into a tangible target state.

Let's look at an example before this gets too abstract: If success is defined as being able to react to changing markets in a fast way, the target state may be having switched all your software development to an agile method. But it might be that moving 10.000 people into an agile mindset is much more complicated then having a fast procurement process with an external software development company. What I am trying to say in this scenario: The underlying belief here is “We have to change our way of producing software in order to be successful”. But if you focus on your definition of success that might simply not be necessary. It basically comes down to our understanding of the goals of others. Do you really know what others want and need to achieve through this decision?

A tactic on getting a grip on people's beliefs about desirable results is by not only asking people about their own definition of success, but to also ask them on what they think their peers’ definition of success is. You can ask “What do you think your colleagues are believing how success can be achieved?” The knowledge on people’s beliefs about what a desirable outcome is will immensely help you facilitate the decision making process. When talking about making better decisions, you have to understand the belief systems of the different stakeholders at your clients so you can systematically challenge them and align them to the common definition of success.


To sum this section up:

Identify the existing belief systems within your project with regard to cause and effect, available options as well as desirable results in order to challenge them. This will improve decision making since you increase the options for actions, explore new business opportunities and therefore create greater impact.

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